Now, a new analysis, exclusive to The 74, sheds light on why he’s had so much trouble. While it’s common knowledge that in the state House have been standing in his way, homeschool parents opposed to education savings accounts have also been part of the resistance. 

Leslie Finger, a political science professor at the University of North Texas, analyzed roll call votes on 13 private school choice bills that reached the floor of either the state House or the Senate between 2013 and 2023. She found that lawmakers were more likely to vote against private school choice not only if they represented a rural area, but also if they had more homeschoolers in their districts.

“We specifically opted out of this system,” Faith Howe, president of Texans for Homeschool Freedom, said about public schools. While proponents of the voucher plan say it will be optional for families, that doesn’t satisfy Howe. “I don’t think they’re going to have a problem coming back and saying ‘Well we need more regulations on these homeschoolers.’”

Texas voters ousted the Republican holdouts in last year’s primary election after Abbott campaigned against them. He is counting on their replacements to deliver a victory this session. But even if that happens, Finger’s results point to a segment of parents who have been getting louder in recent years as ESAs, which parents can spend on tuition or homeschooling costs, have spread across red states. Many traditional homeschoolers fought for the right to educate their children at home and fear that ESA laws could erode some of those protections — even if they don’t take the funds. 

While voucher advocates dismiss many of the homeschoolers’ concerns, Finger said her findings should serve as a warning.

“The presence of big homeschooling communities could make selling private school choice challenging,” Finger said.

‘Government control’

That was certainly the case in Colorado, one of three states last November where voters defeated school choice ballot measures. 

“Government money comes with government control,” said Carolyn Martin, who monitors state legislation for Christian Home Educators of Colorado. Her group viewed the measure as a potential infringement on parents’ rights to educate their children as they see fit.  

Two issues raised red flags for them. The measure said all children should be able to “access a quality education,” which they interpreted as an opportunity for the government to define quality for homeschoolers. It also gave students, as well as parents, the right to school choice. That could spell trouble if kids and parents aren’t on the same page when it comes to education, Martin said.

“At some point the state would probably have to step in and arbitrate between the parent and the child,” she said. “That is not our worldview.”

Other homeschoolers say ESAs contradict conservative values, such as smaller government and less regulation. Gary Humble, executive director of Tennessee Stands, a Christian organization, called the state’s recently passed voucher bill “wealth redistribution.”

“This is another Tennessee entitlement program,” he said. “It’s expensive. It’s irresponsible.” 

The state is expected to spend $1 billion on the program over the next five years. While opponents weren’t able to stop the Republicans from passing the law, Humble tells homeschoolers that if they participate, they could be giving up the freedom to educate their children the way they choose.

“All they hear from special interest groups is that they get seven grand and there are no strings attached,” he said. “They’re not policy wonks, so they don’t understand the trap doors that are laid out ahead of them.”  

ESA programs often require homeschooling families to reapply for funding every year, to take annual standardized tests and to only buy approved items from specific vendors. Homeschooling families who don’t participate want to ensure such restrictions don’t eventually extend to them. 

But those worries fall under what Jeremy Newman, vice president of policy and engagement for the Texas Homeschool Coalition, calls “free-floating anxiety.” 

“They’re concerned somebody is going to do something, sometime, but they’re not sure who or when or what,” he said. 

His organization is strongly in favor of passing a voucher bill in Texas, saying that tax-paying homeschoolers should have just as much access to state education funds as parents who send their kids to public school.

He points to on “regulatory creep” from Angela Watson, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and an expert on . She found that publicly funded school choice programs, like ESAs, don’t contribute to more government overreach. 

Not ‘a monolith’

But the fact that some homeschoolers are so opposed to them proves a point, Watson said. 

“The mistake that everyone makes when they talk about homeschooling is that they continue to think of it as a monolith,” she said. “Homeschooling is just so varied.”

Nationally, of the nation’s students are homeschooled, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Traditional homeschoolers often chose that path for ideological or religious reasons. 

But many new converts, who left public schools during the pandemic, show support for what former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos calls “” — allowing parents to spend education dollars on any type of schooling they choose. It’s a policy that polled high in a from the National Parents Union, with 71% of parents favoring such a system. 

The split among homeschoolers over ESAs, Watson said, has created some “interesting bedfellows” — conservative parents aligning with liberal teachers unions to oppose school choice ballot measures. That’s what happened, not only in Colorado, but also in , where two-thirds of voters rejected such a proposition last year.  

Howe in Texas has heard the criticism. “We’re being accused of being leftist, Marxist and supporting the teachers unions,” she said. 

Newman, with the Texas coalition, said his group is watching out for homeschoolers’ interests. Leaders maintain a “strong presence” at the state capitol in Austin to ensure legislation doesn’t interfere with homeschoolers’ freedom to choose their own curriculum and teaching methods, he said. 

Homeschooled himself as a child, Newman sympathizes with those who recall when it was to educate children at home and not unusual for child protective services to a family when a neighbor reported children not being in school.

But Howe notes that it was a state regulation in Texas — not legislation — that treated homeschooled students as truant. After a lengthy legal fight, the state that parents who homeschool are essentially small private schools.

In Idaho, it’s the state tax commission that will be writing some of the rules for a new that Gov. Brad Little signed into law last month, despite from the public. The state also has an existing grant program targeted toward lower-income families.

Audra Talley, a board member of Homeschool Idaho, said Republican lawmakers have assured her that as long as they control the legislature and the governor’s office, homeschoolers don’t have to worry about rules encroaching on their parental rights. But that’s what she finds disturbing.

“It’s an admission that the potential exists,” she said. “Now we are relying on a certain party or a certain group of individuals to keep those regulations from coming at some future date.”

‘Don’t want to go back’

She’s not exaggerating that some Democrats would prefer to increase monitoring of families who homeschool.

A , for example, would require families to notify their local school district if they intend to homeschool. Families would have to submit teaching materials and their children’s work if authorities are concerned about their education. Hundreds of at the state capitol against the bill earlier this month.

Under another , Michigan homeschoolers would have to register with the state. Superintendent Michael Rice argues that officials should have a count of students in all types of schooling — public, private, parochial and home. and neglect involving homeschool families led to his proposal for more oversight. 

Homeschoolers opposed to ESAs often point to West Virginia — a Republican-led state — as an example of how lawmakers sometimes forget that not everyone wants the government’s money.

The state passed its Hope Scholarship ESA program in 2021, which requires homeschooled students receiving the scholarship to take annual or have their work reviewed each year by a certified teacher.  The law specifically exempted homeschoolers not in the program from the requirements, but a 2023 bill would have erased what advocates call a “carve out” if they hadn’t stepped in. 

ESA proponents use the same example to say the homeschoolers’ fears were overblown and no harm was done. Colleen Hroncich, a policy analyst with the libertarian Cato Institute’s Center for Educational Freedom, thinks the division among homeschoolers over school choice will fade over time.

“As we get further past the generation of homeschoolers that fought for the right to homeschool, it seems like most homeschoolers support funding programs,” she said. “Hopefully the bigger numbers also help push back on additional regulations down the road.”

A third measure in Colorado, appeared headed for defeat. 

Despite the growing popularity of such programs with conservative lawmakers, the results continued the trend of voters, when given the chance, rejecting the idea of allowing public funds to pay for students’ tuition at private schools. 

“These bills are super unpopular, even in rural Trump country,” said Joshua Cowen, a Michigan State University professor and outspoken voucher opponent. 

He was particularly surprised by the results in Kentucky, where voters defeated , 65% to 35% even though former President Donald Trump won the presidential contest there by the same margin. The measure would have allowed state funds to pay for students to attend anything other than a traditional public school. “In an election that seems to be turning on ‘What has the government done for my family?,’ a lot of conservative voters in deep rural parts seem to be asking ‘What would vouchers do for my family?’ ”

In Nebraska, a law, passed last year, that created a private school scholarship program. Support Our Schools Nebraska, a union-backed group, led the campaign to get the referendum on the ballot. In Colorado, a state that would create a right to school choice was failing to reach the 55% threshold to win. Criticized for its vague wording, the initiative could pave the way for voucher legislation in the future. 

Like public school supporters in other states, opponents argue that vouchers drain funding from state budgets and are more likely to serve families who never attended traditional schools. In Colorado, Christian homeschooling families because the initiative also acknowledged the rights of students. They viewed that language as a threat to parental rights.

But school choice advocates say families deserve options outside of the public system. 

“The results from these three states are disappointing and discouraging, especially in light of what other states like Florida have shown school choice can do for students and families over the long haul,” said Ben DeGrow, a senior policy director at ExcelinEd, a nonprofit that advocates for private school choice.

“Opponents have once again shown they can unsettle enough voters with rhetoric that ultimately denies students needed educational opportunities.”

Nevertheless, he doesn’t expect the movement to slow down. In addition to Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott and wealthy conservative donors worked hard to elect pro-voucher members to the House, DeGrow said Tennessee and Idaho are also likely states to push for private school choice programs next year. 

While choice initiatives drew significant attention this election year, there were also several other contentious ballot measures affecting education. 

Florida

A measure that would have required school board candidates to state their political party, failed to win 60% of the vote — the required threshold for the measure to pass. Backed by the legislature and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, the measure received just 55%, according to unofficial results. 

“Honestly, I thought more people would vote no,” said Sue Woltanski, a school board member in Monroe County, Florida, who has written about the influence of conservative candidates endorsed by DeSantis and Moms for Liberty. “Where I live, people are so tired of the division in the community and seemed to be turned off by the hyper-politicization of school boards in particular.”

But Tiffany Justice, a co-founder of Moms for Liberty, which has focused on culture war issues, like trans students in girls sports and sexually explicit library books, said she didn’t understand why anyone would be opposed to candidates disclosing their political affiliation.

“People want to say, ‘Well, the school board isn’t political,’ but the teachers unions have politicized school board races for years,” she said. ‘Ninety-nine percent of the that teachers unions give go to Democrats. I just think more information is good for voters.”

Massachusetts

Voters approved a proposal, sponsored by the Massachusetts Teachers Association, to relax high school graduation requirements, with a vote of 59% to 51%. Tenth graders would still have to take state exams in English, science and math, but they wouldn’t have to earn a passing score to receive a diploma.

The measure highlighted the debate between opponents of high-stakes testing and those who argue states have lowered the bar for achievement in the aftermath of the pandemic, leaving students less prepared for college. 

“Now watch inequities grow wider,” Keri Rodrigues, president of the National Parents Union and a Massachusetts resident, , noting how voters in towns known for high-performing schools rejected the measure. “May the odds be ever in your favor, kids.”

California

Voters approved a $10 billion bond issue — $8.5 billion of which will go to school districts for new construction and renovation projects. Some districts are also likely to use the funds for teacher housing as a way to ease shortages, but they’ll have to come up with local matching funds in order to receive the money.

Voters rejected the last statewide bond issue in 2020, meaning some schools have gone without , but opponents argued it didn’t make sense to spend billions on upgrades when student enrollment is declining.

The following are remaining results:

• With almost 90% saying yes, Arkansas voters overwhelmingly approved that would allow students attending vocational and technical schools to be eligible for the Arkansas Scholarship Lottery. 

• With a vote of 54%, approved a on firearms and ammunition to take effect April 1, 2025. The tax is expected to raise roughly $39 million a year, with $1 million going toward a school violence prevention program, staff training and facility upgrades to improve safety. Another $3 million would expand access to youth behavioral health programs.

• New Mexico voters approved a to fund upgrades and materials for school libraries, as well as early childhood education centers at both the state school for the blind and the school for the deaf.

• , voters approved a measure to increase from 4% to 5% the cap on investment earnings the state can transfer from the State School Fund to education. Local school councils of parents and educators decide how to use the funds. 

A affecting education funding was dropped from the ballot because it wasn’t published in a state newspaper 60 days before the election. The initiative that would have removed a state constitutional requirement that all revenue from income taxes and intangible property, like capital gains and royalty payments, be spent on education, children and people with disabilities. 

Over the last several months, The 74 has taken a look at some of the biggest education issues at play during the 2024 election cycle. Here’s an overview of the federal, state and local races and ballot measures that are poised to impact students, teachers and families the most. 

The White House 

In the first presidential debate of this election season between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, the candidates were asked a question that was top of mind for parents and child advocates:

“In your second term, what would you do to make child care more affordable?” asked Trump during that June debate. 

But rather than focus on children, many critics said the two candidates behaved like them.

Even after Biden dropped out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in as the Democratic party’s presidential nominee and tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a former public high school teacher, as her pick for the vice presidential candidate – education and child care still did not make it to the center stage of election season conversations.

Instead, most clues about Trump’s education policy have come from The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, an ambitious Republican agenda to transform the federal bureaucracy under a second Trump presidency. While Trump has denied any involvement in the creation of Project 2025, experts say the plan reflects many of the ideologies held by the former president and, if enacted, would have considerable fallout in the world of education. 

Project 2025’s chapter on education, for example, offers prescriptions for eliminating Title I grants to high-poverty schools, revising accreditation requirements under the Higher Education Act and dismantling the Department of Education, among other things. Overall, the plan seeks to reimagine the US government as a guardian of parents’ rights and supports school choice. 

Publicly, Trump has also said that he would pull funding from any schools that teach critical race theory or support transgender rights. 

Meanwhile, Harris has not offered much in terms of her education policy. She has made it clear that she thinks Trump’s plan to eliminate the Department of Education would be a terrible idea and has criticized his attacks on curricula taught in schools.

One item that could be on the table during a Harris presidency is a pay hike for teachers. Few may remember it now, but Harris took the biggest swing on education policy of any Democrat in the 2020 presidential primary: a $315 billion to raise teacher pay and overhaul the profession. The American Federation of Teachers, the nation’s second largest teachers union, was the first group to voice their support of Harris as a presidential candidate this summer. 

While the two candidates have vastly different aims when it comes to education, there is one area both camps seem to (mostly) agree on: Expanding the Child Tax Credit. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have embraced proposals to expand the program, which offers relief to parents of kids under 17 years old. Depending on the election outcome, neither party may hold enough power to enact its vision, however. 

National Issues

Bible teachings in public schools: Republicans have spent a lot of energy getting the Bible into public schools. Much of the spotlight has been on Oklahoma state Superintendent Ryan Walters, who mandated that schools stock classrooms with Bibles. Louisiana passed a law requiring schools to post the 10 Commandments in classrooms, the subject of , while the Texas Education Agency has proposed a Bible-infused reading curriculum that includes stories from the Old and New testaments. 

Whether those ideas will resonate with Christian voters is harder to answer. One recent poll suggests it won’t. On a long list of concerns influencing churchgoers’ views in this election, public schools ranked near the bottom as a reason why they would pick a presidential candidate. Instead, the economy and border security topped the list. 

School boards: Moms for Liberty, the conservative advocacy group, hasn’t been able to repeat its success at the polls since 2022, when its school board candidates were scoring victories across the country. Some say voters are clearly tired of what one researcher called the “politics of disruption.” Others believe the group’s leaders are more focused on adding members and mobilizing voters for Trump than winning local races. There have also been efforts to recruit moderates to run against conservative candidates like those from Moms for Liberty. 

A good indicator of who will win school board seats is whether the candidate has the endorsement of a teachers’ union. According to research out of Ohio State University and Boston College, a union endorsement increases support for candidates by as much as 20 percentage points among various voting blocs, with the effects particularly concentrated among Democrats and those who favor organized labor. Almost no group, including Republicans, responds negatively to the endorsements, the authors found.

School choice: A high-stakes political battle is brewing around school choice. GOP groups are funneling millions of dollars into state races to defeat critics of education savings accounts. In Texas, observers say, the victories by pro-ESA candidates could lead to a more conservative legislature or a potential Democratic backlash. 

It’s worth noting that voters have a history of rejecting private school choice measures at the ballot box. Recent voucher proposals garnered less than a . But advocates in three states are hoping to break that trend on Election Day. In , voters will decide whether to preserve or overturn 2023 legislation that created a private school scholarship program. Initiatives in and , if approved, could pave the way for lawmakers to create vouchers or education savings accounts in the future.

State and local races and ballot measures 

Arizona: The outcome of Arizona’s legislative races could upend what has been one of America’s most welcoming environments for school choice. Democrats, who already hold the governorship, could take control of both legislative chambers by flipping just four seats, which would make Arizona voters the first in the nation to hand over governance of an ESA program to its opponents. 

California: A single, heated school board race in Los Angeles could help decide the fate of the nation’s largest charter school sector and the LA Unified School District. Upstart vows to bring a pro-charter voice to LA Unified’s board, but faces stiff opposition from union-backed incumbent . 

Delaware: With at least eight high-level reports over the last 25 years calling for a wholesale overhaul of a Jim Crow-era school funding formula that gives more state aid to wealthy districts and shortchanges disadvantaged kids, whoever wins Delaware’s governor race will have their work cut out for them. 

Illinois: October was already destined to be a tumultuous chapter in Chicago politics, as voters prepared for the first school board elections in the city’s history. But the abrupt resignation of the city’s existing school board, and the related crisis of governance over the country’s fourth-largest school system, has magnified local divisions over finance and the role of the powerhouse Chicago Teachers Union. Now locals are wondering if the mayor can keep the district solvent — and his own administration afloat. 

Indiana: In Indiana’s governor race, GOP U.S. Senator Mike Braun, who’s been endorsed by Donald Trump, wants to expand the state’s school choice voucher program. If elected, Braun and his running mate, far-right , have pledged universal school choice for every Indiana family while focusing on parental rights and school safety. His opponent, former state schools chief Jennifer McCormick, who has the backing of the state teachers union, seeks to expand affordable child care, fight what she believes is excessive state-mandated testing and call for an equitable school funding formula. 

Massachusetts: In Massachusetts, Ballot Question 2 asks voters to decide if the MCAS exam should remain a high school graduation requirement. If it passes, Massachusetts would have no statewide graduation requirements, making it an outlier nationally. Instead, its some 300 districts would determine requirements locally. Those in favor of repealing the requirement — largely backed by the state teachers union — argue it narrows curriculum and harms students with disabilities and English language learners. Those who want to keep the test, including Gov. Maura Healey, say it’s an important accountability measure. 

Minnesota: If Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are elected in November, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan, will become the first Indigenous woman governor in U.S. history. The daughter of a Hubert H. Humphrey campaign strategist and an Ojibwe land-rights activist — Flanagan was the youngest person elected to the Minneapolis School Board. She has promoted free school lunch and Indigenous curriculum.

North Carolina: North Carolina’s race for governor has been marked by scandal. In September, that Republican nominee Mark Robinson called himself a “Black Nazi” and posted “slavery is not bad” anonymously on a porn site. Beyond the controversies, Robinson has kept education debates centered on eradicating the presence of “politics” and “indoctrination” in schools, and . His challenger, Democratic candidate Josh Stein, told that his top priority as governor would be to improve public education. He has also supported to address the youth mental health crisis, and wants to expand access to community colleges and Historically Black Colleges and Universities. Whoever is elected as the state’s leader will appoint individuals for , subject to confirmation by the assembly. 

Another pivotal race in North Carolina will be for superintendent. Republican candidate Michele Morrow, a homeschooler who rallied outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan 6, has a history of disparaging public schools with choice words like “indoctrination centers.” She faces Democrat Maurice “Mo” Green, a lawyer and former district superintendent. Whoever wins will be responsible for more than 2,700 schools and a $13 billion education budget. 

Rhode Island: Providence, Rhode Island’s school board has been appointed by the mayor for decades, but voters will be able to pick board members again this election. The catch is that state control of the district was just extended to 2027, limiting what the new board can do. New members will still have to navigate their way out of state control as well as handle challenges with low test scores, falling enrollments, school closures and demand for more charter schools. 

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Five-year trend data beginning in the 2020-21 school year shows traditional district public schools lost roughly 1.75 million students, while enrollment in charters grew by nearly 400,000 students. 

The figures, included in a from the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, come as America’s K-12 system struggles to forge a comeback in the wake of the pandemic, beset by slow academic recovery, rising rates of absenteeism and perhaps the stickiest wicket of all, enrollment declines.

Complicating the landscape further is a major push by Republicans for the expansion of private school choice programs. In dozens of states across the country, the GOP has made significant inroads toward its goal, fueling concern among public school advocates.

“The data from this report should serve as a wake-up call to all who care about public education,” says Debbie Veney, lead author of the report and senior vice president of communications at the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. “We have to offer families an option they believe in, or they will leave public schools altogether.”

To be sure, the vast majority of families – 80% according to the National Center for Education Statistics – still enroll their children in the traditional district public schools for which their neighborhoods are zoned. But district public schools lost about 275,000 students last school year. And while that amounts to less than 1% of total enrollment, the sector has experienced a 4% decrease over the last five years. Meanwhile, charters experienced a 12% gain over the same time span.

Among one of the notable statistics in the report: More than 75% of states saw their charter school enrollment increase last year, as roughly the same percentage of states saw their district’s public school enrollment decrease.

“Enrollment growth of more than 80,000 new students in just one year is a clear sign that families are not waiting for the system to catch up to their needs – they are actively seeking schools that meet their children’s needs today,” said Starlee Coleman, President and CEO of the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools. 

Indeed, since the pandemic, charters have been enrolling a larger share of students, including at least 10% of public school students in Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Washington, D.C. The rate of growth has been faster in places where there is more capacity to expand, especially in smaller states and states with new laws enacting charters and expanding or eliminating existing charter caps, such as Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Washington and Wyoming.

Florida and Texas have posted the largest five-year gains and are responsible for 40% of all new charter students in the report. 

Notably, the report compared shifts in school-aged populations with enrollment patterns by state, allowing researchers to identify whether enrollment changes are being driven by population shifts or by a desire for different public school options. The comparison showed that in 36 out of the 43 states included in the report – 84% total – charter schools enrollment growth exceeded school-aged population growth. In contrast, every state’s district school growth underperformed population growth. 

“In a world where district schools and charter schools were doing equally well in terms of enrollment, we would see them picking up similar percentages of the school aged population in places seeing growth and similar declines for states where this population is declining,” says Veney. “We see divergent trends, however.”

When it comes to demographics, both charters and district schools are gaining Hispanic students, but charter school growth is outpacing district schools growth by 18 times. In fact, one of every three charter students in the U.S. is Hispanic. Similarly, Black student enrollment is on the rise, increasing roughly 8% at charters and 5% at district schools over the last five years. 

The big take-away for traditional school districts, however, is how significantly enrollment is down among white students: Last year, district schools lost nearly 300,000 white students, for a total of 1.4 million lost since the pandemic. Charters, however,  have increased enrollment among white students  by 21,000 over the same time period.

“The fact that the net outflow is most precipitous among white students from traditional public schools is significant. That really stuck out to me,” says Derrell Bradford, president of 50CAN, an education advocacy organization that supports giving families better options through both public and private school choice. 

On the East Coast, charter schools have traditionally sprung up in urban school districts to offer low-income students of color a choice other than their often poor-performing zoned neighborhood schools, Bradford points out. But that’s not necessarily the case in other states, like Arizona and Texas, where some charter schools, like the BASIS chain, are marketing rigorous college preparatory curriculums. The diversification of their offerings, he says, is at least one major driver of their enrollment increases.

To be sure, enrollment gains and drops are not universal – where they happen, the reasons why they happen, and how acutely they happen are all unique to the school district in which they occur. And traditional district enrollment isn’t decreasing solely because of charter school expansions. Many other factors are at play, including a rise in homeschooling and expanded access in Republican-led states to education savings accounts, private school voucher programs, tax credit scholarships and other types of private school choice. 

“This is a really interesting time for charters. Charters have been a balance point between two kinds of school choice – private school choice and open enrollment,” says Bradford. “The latter I’d argue is a significantly tougher nut to crack. People are like, ‘I bought my house, I bought my school, it’s mine.’ And that’s kind of a sacred thing.”

In , voters will decide whether to preserve or overturn 2023 legislation that created a private school scholarship program. Initiatives in and , if approved, could pave the way for lawmakers to create vouchers or education savings accounts in the future.

Despite past defeats, “school choice is continuing to gain support across the country with every demographic,” said Ben DeGrow, a senior policy director at ExcelinEd, which supports the expansion of private school choice. “We’re only likely to see more states add programs by the end of the decade.”

Over the past two years, several GOP governors and lawmakers have been able to push through education savings accounts, which allow families to use state funds for private school tuition, homeschooling or a combination of programs. Nearly 600,000 students in eight states were enrolled in universal ESA programs in 2023-24, according to , a think tank at Georgetown University. In 2022, only Arizona had a universal program that served about . But it’s unclear if that momentum will continue at the polls in the face of opponents who argue such programs hurt public schools.

11 measures in 9 states

The questions on school choice are among 11 education-related initiatives on the ballot in nine states this November. Other measures likely to drive voters to the polls include a union-led Massachusetts proposal to relax high school graduation requirements and a asking whether school board elections should be officially partisan. A few measures would impact school funding, including a that would provide $8.5 billion to modernize outdated K-12 schools.

But with enrollment in district schools continuing to  decline, the questions about public funds for private schools have attracted the most attention. 

While Colorado offers charter schools, there are few school choice options in Nebraska and Kentucky. Votes in favor of choice in those states would “represent a significant step forward for families in terms of educational opportunity,” DeGrow said.

But all three states have large rural areas, where resistance to vouchers has traditionally . In states like Texas, Republican lawmakers from rural communities have been the fiercest opponents. Some worry ESAs would prompt more families to choose homeschooling and private schools, forcing public schools to close or consolidate. Others argue such programs don’t benefit families in rural areas because there aren’t enough private schools. 

The question is “whether rural voters themselves can be convinced to support vouchers,” said Kevin Welner, director of the National Education Policy Center at the University of Colorado Boulder.  

Well-funded conservative organizations, like in Colorado and the in Nebraska, have tried to make the case that voters need to pass school choice to keep up with neighboring states offering more education options for families.

While have mobilized against private school choice, “I expect that the money battle will be lopsidedly pro-voucher,” Welner said. “It will be interesting to see how much of an effect that money has in shifting popular opinion.”

In Kentucky, Amendment 2 wouldn’t automatically result in a school voucher program, but  asks voters if they want public funds to pay for education outside of what the law calls a “system of common schools.”

Until now, Kentucky courts have had the final say over whether the state joins the 29 others with at least one school choice program. In 2022, the said a 2021 law creating tax credits for “education opportunity accounts” violated the state constitution. A yes vote on the ballot measure would give the Republican-dominated legislature a “safe, legal path” to pass a school choice program, DeGrow said. 

Supporters like Republican Rep. Jared Bauman say it’s time for the state to catch up with neighbors like Indiana and Ohio that offer parents some form of school choice. But , including Democratic , warn that a voucher plan could cost the state as much as $1.19 billion if it reached a scale similar to that of Florida’s universal program. 

The “common schools” wording of the constitution has also held up efforts to fund charters. Kentucky has had a since 2022, but in December a state court it unconstitutional. 

In Nebraska, where lawmakers passed a $10 million private school scholarship program last year, Support Our Schools Nebraska, a union-led advocacy group, gathered enough signatures this summer to put a veto referendum on the ballot. 

Like public school supporters in other states, opponents argue that such programs are a drain on state budgets and mostly serve families who already pay for private school instead of the neediest students. But Republican state Sen. Lou Ann Linehan, who sponsored the school choice legislation, that students shouldn’t have to attend schools that are failing or can’t meet their needs.  

Finally, in Colorado, a ballot question asks voters if they support adding language to the state constitution that would guarantee children a right to the full array of school choice options — traditional district schools, charters, private schools, open enrollment and homeschooling. 

Some the measure could invite more government oversight into homeschooling, while Welner predicted it would prompt legal challenges “because it’s so vague and yet touches on so many issues.” 

Bond issues, graduation requirements 

Beyond debates over school choice, several other ballot measures affect both education policy and funding. Here is a brief rundown:

Arkansas 

Since 2009, the Arkansas Scholarship Lottery has provided over 720,000 college scholarships, totaling $1.2 billion. But students attending vocational and technical schools haven’t been eligible for the awards. The legislature placed on the ballot that would change that. 

California

Almost 40% of California’s public schools fail to meet basic facility standards, according to a from the Public Policy Institute of California. Students often attend schools with unsafe conditions, like gas leaks, faulty electrical systems or structural damage. asks voters to approve a $10 billion bond issue that would provide $8.5 billion for new construction and renovations at district schools, charters and career and technical centers. Local districts would have to provide matching funds. 

After voters rejected a $15 billion bond in 2020, repair projects have piled up, but in addition to renovating schools, districts would also be able to use the funds for . Teachers often can’t afford to live in high-priced parts of the state, like Los Angeles, San Diego and the Bay Area, which creates recruitment and retention challenges for districts in those metro areas. 

An anti-tax organization, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association that  the measure doesn’t make sense at a time when the state is losing enrollment and would likely lead to higher property taxes. 

But Public Advocates, which focuses on the needs of low-income students, is for a different reason. They say the measure should include a sliding scale that allots poorer districts a greater share of the funds. 

Colorado

A proposed on firearms and ammunition would take effect April 1, 2025 and raise roughly $39 million a year. Most of the revenue would fund services for victims of gun violence, but $1 million would go into a school security program for violence prevention in schools as well as staff training and facility upgrades to improve safety. Another $3 million would expand access to youth behavioral health programs. 

Rep. Monica Duran, a Democrat who sponsored legislation to get the measure on the ballot, says the tax doesn’t infringe on gun owners’ Second Amendment rights. But gun lobbyists argue that gun and ammunition purchases are already subject to an 11% federal tax. 

Florida 

School board races have become increasingly partisan, especially since the pandemic, when issues like mask mandates and disputes over curriculum split communities in half. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis further politicized school board races in 2022 when he endorsed a slate of 30 candidates, 25 of whom won that year in the general election.

Amendment 1, which the legislature placed on the ballot last year, would officially change the Florida constitution to end nonpartisan races and require candidates to state their political party. 

Sixty percent of voters would need to approve the measure for it to pass. If they do, the new provision would apply to elections in 2026. Opponents of the idea argue that education issues have grown overly divisive and that partisan races would who aren’t registered party members. Proponents say the requirement would increase transparency. 

One former Polk County school board member thinks there won’t be enough support for the measure to reach the 60% threshold. 

“I think voters here are actually very tired of the school drama,” said Billy Townsend. “While they tend to vote GOP in state offices, [voters] also tend to prefer non-partisan offices locally. I would bet it falls short of 50%.” 

Massachusetts

Decisions over academic expectations are generally left up to state and local school boards. But in Massachusetts, voters will whether high school students should still have to pass state exams in English, math and science to graduate.

The , the state’s largest teachers union, led the effort to get the referendum on the ballot. The union argues that teachers spend too much class time preparing students for the tests and that the requirement hasn’t achieved the results testing proponents want. Under their alternative, students would have to master state standards to graduate.

Opponents, however, say scrapping the requirement would ultimately hurt students and leave them for college and careers. They’ve launched a $250,000 to convince voters to reject the measure. 

New Mexico

New Mexico voters have a strong track record of for capital improvement projects on education facilities. Since 1995, they’ve approved that have been on the ballot. This year, they’ll vote on a that would fund, among other items, furniture, equipment and materials at school libraries, as well as early childhood education centers at both the state school for the blind and the school for the deaf.

Utah

Utah voters will decide on two school funding measures, both placed on the ballot by the legislature. The asks voters to remove a state constitutional requirement that all revenue from income taxes and intangible property, like capital gains and royalty payments, be spent on education, children and people with disabilities.  If the measure passes, the law would only say that the state must provide a “framework” for funding schools.

The state teachers union was initially neutral on the change, but now opposes it. Lawmakers say revenue is up and this change would make budgeting easier.

The measure asks voters to increase from 4% to 5% the cap on investment earnings the state can transfer from the State School Fund to education. Local of parents and educators decide how to spend the funds for purchases like library books or an extra teaching assistant position. Last year, the state distributed over $100 million from the fund.

In January 2022, Governor Doug Ducey called on state lawmakers to pass the most robust and legislation in the country. As he declared in his state of the state address, “Send me the bills, and I’ll sign them.” In just the few short months since, state lawmakers have delivered a historic victory for school choice and cleared the path for the nation’s most powerful academic transparency law. 

Indeed, this week the governor is set to sign into law a universal expansion of the state’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program, extending eligibility to every single K-12 student in the state.

by the Goldwater Institute over a decade ago, Arizona’s ESA program allows participating families to take a portion of what state taxpayers would have spent educating the child in a public school and instead use those funds (approximately $7,000 per child) for any educational need, whether private school tuition, textbooks, tutoring or curriculum resources for home-based learners, and more. 

Arizona’s ESA program has exploded from serving just over 100 students in 2011 to more than 11,000 by 2022. For years, participating families have shared personal with state leaders of the transformative impact the ESA program has had on their children’s lives. As one mom declared to state board of education members in 2020: “I am a parent of three children on ESA, but I also have a master’s degree in elementary education, and ESA has saved the educational lives of my three children.”

Throughout these years, however, access to the ESA program has been limited to fewer than one in four Arizona public school students, with eligibility restricted to children with special needs or families serving in the military, among others. 

Then came the pandemic. 

As parents found their children ejected en masse from schools during COVID — even as public schools scored an additional in free funding from Washington, D.C. — Arizona lawmakers floated proposals each of the years to expand eligibility for the state’s ESA program and offer a lifeline to families beyond the public school system. Sponsored by state Senator Paul Boyer, proposed legislation would have extended ESA eligibility to students from certain Title I schools with the highest concentrations of child poverty. Despite the massive learning losses recorded among low-income kids as a direct result of public school COVID policies, though, union-backed lawmakers continued to block these attempts at expanding the program. 

This past month, however, the dam finally broke. — sponsored by Representative Ben Toma — secured enough support to clear the full state legislature, bringing ESA eligibility to every K-12 student in the state and vaulting Arizona back into the top spot nationwide for educational freedom. 

Opponents have once again pledged to fight against ESA expansion, and state lawmakers still have to notch the final win for in 2023 after , which would require public schools to disclose online all instructional materials being used in their classrooms, also cleared the state senate and came just a single vote short of final passage in the house. 

But in both cases, one can see a growing consensus among Arizona lawmakers that meaningful reforms are needed by families across the state, and that now is the time for greater educational freedom and academic transparency for students across the nation. 

is director of the Van Sittert Center for Constitutional Advocacy and director of education policy at the Goldwater Institute